Ginebra finished off Rain or Shine in Game 4 of their semi-finals match up to grab the last seat to the Commissioner's Cup 2018 Finals. The San Miguel Beermen already took the first seat last Sunday when they won against Alaska. Despite these two teams being lower seeded during the eliminations, I think that many fans and analysts somehow expected this match-up was going to happen and I feel that these two teams are still considered the top teams in the PBA, with San Miguel winning this years Philippine Cup and Ginebra winning last year's Governor's Cup.
Justin Brownlee and Reynaldo Balkman may have been teammates on Alab Pilipinas, but they are now rivals in this Finals match-up. And imports are critical in this series. I'm not sure if Reynaldo is 100% since he appears to have been hurt in the SMB-Alaska semis. Brownlee has proved to be deadly in the Ginebra-ROS series, and has the edge of having a 3-point shot and being clutch, so I would say Ginebra has the edge over SMB in terms of the imports.
Jeff Chan has found his shooting touch with Ginebra. Marcio Lassiter has had some games where he scores big and some games where he scores little. But both shooters are positives for their respective teams when they are on the court. So I would say that this match-up is an even one.
LA Tenorio has had a hard time against SMB's guards. Coach Leo Austria usually uses Brian Heruela to match well against LA's speed. Chris Ross has the height advantage over Tenorio, but I really am not sure Ross can take advantage of this at the post. Hopefully, Chris Ross' 3-point shooting continues on in the Finals. Otherwise, if LA has those games where he scores in bunches, SMB will be in a lot of trouble. LA also is clutch, just like Brownlee, and this can give Ginebra the edge in close game situations.
Jun Mar Fajardo is undoubtedly the best center in the PBA today. But Greg Slaughter would want to change the status quo. Slaughter has proven to be one of the centers that can guard Jun Mar well so I'm thinking the two will cancel each other out in this series.
Japeth Aguilar was a scoring beast when Slaughter was out. I was even surprised that he wasn't as explosive in the ROS series, but perhaps this is due to his injury. Stanhardinger has yet to have a really explosive game in the post eliminations. I'm not even sure if Stanhardinger will be used to match up with Aguilar, or against Slaughter or Joe Devance. Among forwards, Joe Devance has the 3-point edge. So maybe matching Arwind Santos against Devance is more likely. Even Kelly Nabong can enter this conversation. And Kevin Ferrer. But I guess matching heft against heft will be key in the forward match-ups so that neither team gains a significant advantage down low. So the team that gains the edge is the team that can maximize their forward's advantage beyond the perimeter.
Scottie Thompson has been a special player for Ginebra. He's like a Dennis Rodman at the guard position. He is also an energy guy for the team. Maybe Chris Ross will be matched up against him.
Sol Mercado and Alex Cabagnot will probably be matched against each other, too. Sol Mercado has some games where he just scores in bunches. So does Alex Cabagnot. Hopefully, they will cancel each other out.
As for bench players, it could also go either way because both benches have a lot of talented players. Maybe Julian Sargent will be showcased in this series. Matt Ganuelas-Rosser can probably be matched against him. Jet Manuel could also show up. Maybe Vigil could match well against him.
Tim Cone is the coach with the most wins in the PBA. Leo Austria is the coach with the most wins in the last 3 seasons of the PBA. It will be nice to see how each adjusts to the other's strategies and tactics.
SMB is the defending champion of the Commissioner's Cup. Ginebra hasn't won a Commissioner's Cup since 1997. In terms of hunger as a motivation, you could say that Ginebra is hungrier. But SMB fans are hoping this will be the Beermen's Grandslam year. And in order to do that, they have to win the Commissioner's Cup.
These are just some of the things that will make this best-of-seven series exciting. And the PBA fans are the winners in this match-up, with each game being a potential thriller.
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